AI 模型出口管制:从 Anthropic Fable 5/Mythos 5 被禁看全球 AI 治理新格局

# 模拟 AI 模型访问控制策略
from enum import Enum
from typing import Optional, Dict, Any
import hashlib
import time

class AccessLevel(Enum):
    FULL = "full"           # 完全访问
    RESTRICTED = "restricted"  # 受限访问(如仅限美国用户)
    BLOCKED = "blocked"     # 完全禁止

class ModelExportController:
    """AI 模型出口管制控制器"""

    def __init__(self):
        self.models = {
            "claude-fable-5": {
                "export_controlled": True,
                "allowed_countries": ["US"],  # 仅允许美国
                "access_level": AccessLevel.RESTRICTED
            },
            "claude-opus-4.8": {
                "export_controlled": False,
                "allowed_countries": [],  # 空表示不限制
                "access_level": AccessLevel.FULL
            }
        }
        self.access_logs = []

    def check_access(
        self,
        model_id: str,
        user_nationality: Optional[str] = None,
        user_location: Optional[str] = None,
        api_key: str = None
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        检查用户是否有权访问指定模型

        在现实中,这个检查需要在毫秒级完成,
        且需要处理国籍验证的复杂性
        """
        if model_id not in self.models:
            return {"allowed": False, "reason": "Model not found"}

        model_config = self.models[model_id]

        # 如果模型不受出口管制,允许访问
        if not model_config["export_controlled"]:
            return {"allowed": True, "reason": "Model not export controlled"}

        # 如果模型受管制,检查国籍
        if user_nationality:
            if user_nationality in model_config["allowed_countries"]:
                return {"allowed": True, "reason": "User nationality allowed"}
            else:
                self._log_access_attempt(model_id, user_nationality, False)
                return {
                    "allowed": False,
                    "reason": f"Nationality {user_nationality} not allowed for {model_id}"
                }

        # 如果没有国籍信息,根据策略决定
        # Anthropic 的实际策略是:没有国籍信息 = 禁止访问
        self._log_access_attempt(model_id, "unknown", False)
        return {
            "allowed": False,
            "reason": "Cannot verify nationality - access denied per export control policy"
        }

    def emergency_disable_model(self, model_id: str, reason: str):
        """
        紧急禁用模型 - 模拟"杀死开关"

        在现实中,这需要:
        1. 同步更新所有 API 网关
        2. 通知所有云平台合作伙伴
        3. 更新所有区域的配置
        """
        if model_id in self.models:
            self.models[model_id]["access_level"] = AccessLevel.BLOCKED
            print(f"[EMERGENCY] Model {model_id} disabled: {reason}")
            print(f"[EMERGENCY] Timestamp: {time.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S UTC')}")
            # 实际实现中,这里会触发:
            # 1. API 网关配置更新
            # 2. 云平台 webhook 通知
            # 3. 客户通知系统
            # 4. 审计日志记录

    def _log_access_attempt(self, model_id: str, nationality: str, allowed: bool):
        """记录访问尝试 - 合规审计必需"""
        log_entry = {
            "timestamp": time.time(),
            "model_id": model_id,
            "nationality": nationality,
            "allowed": allowed,
            "hash": hashlib.sha256(f"{model_id}:{nationality}:{time.time()}".encode()).hexdigest()[:16]
        }
        self.access_logs.append(log_entry)

# 使用示例
controller = ModelExportController()

# 场景 1: 美国用户访问受管制模型
result = controller.check_access(
    model_id="claude-fable-5",
    user_nationality="US"
)
print(f"US user access: {result}")
# 输出: {'allowed': True, 'reason': 'User nationality allowed'}

# 场景 2: 中国用户访问受管制模型
result = controller.check_access(
    model_id="claude-fable-5",
    user_nationality="CN"
)
print(f"CN user access: {result}")
# 输出: {'allowed': False, 'reason': 'Nationality CN not allowed...'}

# 场景 3: 未知国籍用户访问
result = controller.check_access(
    model_id="claude-fable-5",
    user_nationality=None
)
print(f"Unknown nationality access: {result}")
# 输出: {'allowed': False, 'reason': 'Cannot verify nationality...'}

# 场景 4: 紧急禁用
controller.emergency_disable_model(
    model_id="claude-fable-5",
    reason="US Government Export Control Directive 2026-06-12"
)

// 多模型路由器 - 实现 AI 供应链韧性
interface ModelProvider {
  id: string;
  name: string;
  region: string;
  compliance: {
    exportControlled: boolean;
    dataResidency: string[];
    slA: string;
  };
  capabilities: string[];
  pricing: {
    inputPerToken: number;
    outputPerToken: number;
  };
}

interface RoutingRule {
  condition: (context: RequestContext) => boolean;
  providerIds: string[];
  priority: number;
}

interface RequestContext {
  taskType: string;
  userRegion: string;
  dataSensitivity: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high';
  latencyRequirement: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high';
  costSensitivity: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high';
}

class ResilientModelRouter {
  private providers: Map<string, ModelProvider> = new Map();
  private rules: RoutingRule[] = [];
  private healthStatus: Map<string, boolean> = new Map();

  constructor() {
    // 注册多个模型供应商,分散风险
    this.registerProvider({
      id: 'anthropic-opus-4.8',
      name: 'Claude Opus 4.8',
      region: 'US',
      compliance: {
        exportControlled: false,  // 不受出口管制
        dataResidency: ['US', 'EU'],
        slA: '99.9%'
      },
      capabilities: ['reasoning', 'code', 'analysis'],
      pricing: { inputPerToken: 0.000015, outputPerToken: 0.000075 }
    });

    this.registerProvider({
      id: 'openai-gpt5.5',
      name: 'GPT-5.5',
      region: 'US',
      compliance: {
        exportControlled: false,
        dataResidency: ['US', 'EU', 'APAC'],
        slA: '99.9%'
      },
      capabilities: ['reasoning', 'code', 'multimodal'],
      pricing: { inputPerToken: 0.000012, outputPerToken: 0.000060 }
    });

    this.registerProvider({
      id: 'moonshot-k2.7-code',
      name: 'Kimi K2.7 Code',
      region: 'CN',
      compliance: {
        exportControlled: false,
        dataResidency: ['CN', 'APAC'],
        slA: '99.5%'
      },
      capabilities: ['code', 'reasoning', 'agent'],
      pricing: { inputPerToken: 0.000008, outputPerToken: 0.000040 }
    });

    this.registerProvider({
      id: 'self-hosted-llama3',
      name: 'LLaMA 3 (Self-hosted)',
      region: 'SELF',
      compliance: {
        exportControlled: false,
        dataResidency: ['ANY'],  // 自托管,数据完全可控
        slA: '99.0%'  // 取决于自身基础设施
      },
      capabilities: ['reasoning', 'code', 'general'],
      pricing: { inputPerToken: 0.000005, outputPerToken: 0.000005 }  // 主要是算力成本
    });

    // 设置路由规则
    this.setupRoutingRules();
  }

  private registerProvider(provider: ModelProvider) {
    this.providers.set(provider.id, provider);
    this.healthStatus.set(provider.id, true);
  }

  private setupRoutingRules() {
    // 规则 1: 高敏感数据必须使用自托管或同区域模型
    this.rules.push({
      condition: (ctx) => ctx.dataSensitivity === 'high',
      providerIds: ['self-hosted-llama3'],
      priority: 100
    });

    // 规则 2: 代码任务优先使用代码能力强的模型
    this.rules.push({
      condition: (ctx) => ctx.taskType === 'code',
      providerIds: ['moonshot-k2.7-code', 'anthropic-opus-4.8', 'openai-gpt5.5'],
      priority: 50
    });

    // 规则 3: 亚太用户优先使用亚太区域模型
    this.rules.push({
      condition: (ctx) => ctx.userRegion === 'APAC',
      providerIds: ['moonshot-k2.7-code', 'openai-gpt5.5'],
      priority: 30
    });

    // 规则 4: 成本敏感场景使用性价比最高的模型
    this.rules.push({
      condition: (ctx) => ctx.costSensitivity === 'high',
      providerIds: ['self-hosted-llama3', 'moonshot-k2.7-code'],
      priority: 20
    });
  }

  async route(context: RequestContext): Promise<string> {
    // 按优先级排序规则
    const sortedRules = [...this.rules].sort((a, b) => b.priority - a.priority);

    for (const rule of sortedRules) {
      if (rule.condition(context)) {
        // 找到第一个健康的供应商
        for (const providerId of rule.providerIds) {
          if (this.healthStatus.get(providerId)) {
            console.log(`Routed to ${providerId} based on rule priority ${rule.priority}`);
            return providerId;
          }
        }
      }
    }

    // 默认回退:选择第一个健康的供应商
    for (const [id, healthy] of this.healthStatus) {
      if (healthy) return id;
    }

    throw new Error('No healthy model provider available');
  }

  // 健康检查 - 检测模型不可用
  async healthCheck() {
    for (const [id, provider] of this.providers) {
      try {
        // 实际实现中,这里会发送一个测试请求
        const isHealthy = await this.pingProvider(id);
        this.healthStatus.set(id, isHealthy);

        if (!isHealthy) {
          console.warn(`Provider ${id} is unhealthy, marking for failover`);
          // 触发告警
          this.alertTeam(id);
        }
      } catch (error) {
        this.healthStatus.set(id, false);
      }
    }
  }

  private async pingProvider(providerId: string): Promise<boolean> {
    // 模拟健康检查
    return Math.random() > 0.1;  // 90% 概率健康
  }

  private alertTeam(unhealthyProvider: string) {
    console.log(`[ALERT] Provider ${unhealthyProvider} is down. Initiating failover.`);
  }
}

// 使用示例
const router = new ResilientModelRouter();

// 场景 1: 高敏感数据处理
const context1: RequestContext = {
  taskType: 'analysis',
  userRegion: 'US',
  dataSensitivity: 'high',
  latencyRequirement: 'medium',
  costSensitivity: 'low'
};
router.route(context1).then(id => console.log(`High sensitivity routed to: ${id}`));
// 输出: High sensitivity routed to: self-hosted-llama3

// 场景 2: 代码生成任务
const context2: RequestContext = {
  taskType: 'code',
  userRegion: 'APAC',
  dataSensitivity: 'low',
  latencyRequirement: 'low',
  costSensitivity: 'medium'
};
router.route(context2).then(id => console.log(`Code task routed to: ${id}`));
// 输出: Code task routed to: moonshot-k2.7-code